Poor Sen. Ben Nelson

I think that it is deplorable that the people of Nebraska are so upset with Sen. Nelson.  This guy sold his own soul to bring a huge boon to his native state.  No other state senator was able to secure such an overwhelming and far-reaching boon for their state. 

Under the “Cornhusker Kickback,” the federal government will pay all of Nebraska’s new Medicaid costs forever.  The short-term (10-year) benefit of the Nebraska exemption is expected to be only 100 million dollars.  That does not really even begin to tell the real story here though.  How could Sen. Nelson get so much less than Sen. Landrieu's 300 million for Louisiana?  There are really two reasons that this is deal is insanely better.

First, the agreement is forever.  That is a long time, it is not 10 years.  Give the time-value of money, due to expected inflation this number does not even hold true for the 10 years the estimate covers.  When was the last time the government UNDER-estimated any budgetary number?

Second, given the hold on benefits for the first 4 years that were necessary to put in place so the the bill would come-in at a figure that politicians think is reasonable, you can inflate the projection by 60% for the second 10 years right off the bat.  10 million over 6 years = 1.66mil/yr * 10yrs = 17million (roughly) and this does not include inflation or any incorrect estimation.

Hold onto your hat, it gets even better.  Sen Nelson has now asked for the Nebraska exemption to be removed.  In his letter to the Senate, Sen. Nelson wrote:

I believe I have been clear that my intentions during all stages of negotiations were not that the State of Nebraska be given a special deal, but rather that all states be given the same tools to address an unfunded federal mandate. To remove any attempts at continued distortion or miscommunication on this point, however, I ask that the Nebraska Medicaid exemption be removed and that all states receive equal treatment under the Medicaid expansion.

This poor man did his best to get a huge break for his constituency, then found that his constituency was against it, asked that it be repealed and they are likely to oust him no matter how you work the polls: Heineman 61%, Nelson 30%, and 4% "other." Less than 20% of Nebraskans polled approve of the deal. Even since Nelson has turned his back on the deal he worked so hard for, the poll shows: Heineman 47%, Nelson 37%, plus 10% "other." On the positive side for Sen. Nelson, he won't be on the ballot again until 2012. At that point, most insiders believe that the voters will have forgotten this issue altogether.

I find it very amusing that the political hierarchy can be so very out-of-step with its constituency.  Trust me, this Nelson guy is not alone.